India's exports to China have increased by 16.15 per cent to USD 20.87 billion in 2020 from USD 17.9 billion in the previous year on account of healthy growth in the shipments of ores, iron and steel, aluminum and copper, according to the data of the commerce ministry.
Imposition of high tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada by the US is expected to help Indian exporters in increasing their shipments to the American market, experts say.
The declining exports would have implications for the job market.
India's exports may have touched an all-time high of $422 billion in 2021-22 but recession in key western markets and geo-political crisis due to the Russia-Ukraine war are expected to impact the growth of the country's outbound shipments in 2023. All the global trade promoting factors like political stability, movement of goods, adequate availability of containers and shipping lines, demand, stable currency and smooth banking systems are in disarray. Adding to the woes, COVID cases have again started rising in countries like China, Japan, South Korea and the US.
Modi sees export-led growth one of the best ways to create jobs.
The trade deficit marginally narrowed to $12.5 billion last month from $12.8 billion in July.
The Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO), the apex body for exporters, is formulating a strategy for five key sectors to boost exports to the United States (US), as President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to impose high tariffs on Chinese goods. "This time, we need to be proactive instead of reactive.
Domestic exporters on Monday expressed concerns over the crisis in Bangladesh and said the developments in the neighbouring country would have implications on bilateral trade. However, exporters expect that the situation may normalise soon. According to exporters, they are already facing disruptions in exports to Bangladesh due to a shortage of foreign exchange in that country.
With Kabul falling into the hands of the Taliban, bilateral trade between Afghanistan and India will get impacted significantly in these uncertain times, according to exporters. Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) director general Ajay Sahai said domestic exporters should follow caution looking into the political development in Afghanistan, particularly with regard to payments, for which adequate credit insurance may be availed by them. "The trade will be impacted. It would reduce due to the growing uncertainty in Afghanistan," he said on Monday. Former FIEO president and country's leading exporter S K Saraf too said there will be a significant fall in the bilateral trade.
Lakhs of jobs are at stake.
However, these are understood to be exploratory talks, with an agreement unlikely to be formalised during the current visit.
The additional 25 per cent tariff imposed by US President Donald Trump on India is set to deliver a major blow to West Bengal's export-driven economy, with the state's labour-intensive leather, engineering and marine sectors expecting losses ahead of the festive season, stakeholders said. The increased levies on Indian products for the country's purchases of Russian oil came into effect on Wednesday, bringing the total amount of tariff imposed on New Delhi to 50 per cent.
Exporters on Thursday sought a fund of Rs 750 crore for three years to tap USD 25 billion export potential in the US, aiming to seize potential opportunities that may arise as the US President-elect, Donald Trump, has threatened to impose high tariffs on Chinese goods. In its pre-Budget meeting with the finance ministry, Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) President Ashwani Kumar has also demanded extension of the five per cent Interest Equalisation Scheme (IES).
The government on Tuesday announced setting up of hubs to promote exports through e-commerce medium in public-private-partnership (PPP) mode and initially 10-15 hubs will be established. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said that these hubs, under a seamless regulatory and logistic framework, will facilitate trade and export-related services under one roof. "To enable MSMEs (micro, small and medium enterprises) and traditional artisans to sell their products in international markets, e-commerce export hubs will be set up in PPP mode," she said.
After staging a strong recovery from COVID-induced slowdown in 2021, India's exports are likely to extend the growth story to the New Year also on increased demand in the global markets, boost in domestic manufacturing due to production-linked incentive schemes and implementation of some interim trade pacts. Expectations of positive growth in the country's exports are also backed up by the outlook of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) which predicts a 4.7 per cent expansion in the global merchandise trade volume in 2022. Exporters believe that the outbound shipments would cross $400 billion mark in this fiscal going by the current momentum and may reach $475 billion in 2022-23.
As the liquidity crunch reaches crisis levels and getting tax refunds remain a big headache, exporters saw orders fall by 15 per cent till October.
India's exports are unlikely to get an immediate boost from a depreciating rupee, which touched an all-time low on Monday, driven by rising commodity prices. The rupee fell to 76.97 against the dollar earlier in the day, settling 1.05 per cent weaker than the previous close. Oil prices soared to their highest since 2008 on Monday at $139 per barrel, after the US and European allies explored a Russian oil import ban, while delays in the potential return of Iranian crude oil to global markets increased supply fears.
Contracting for the seventh month in a row, India's exports dipped by 15.82 per cent in June to $22.28 billion due to global slowdown and dip in crude oil prices that impacted shipments of petroleum products.
The Centre is regularly holding consultations with stakeholders to streamline foreign direct investments (FDIs) and foreign institutional investments (FIIs) related processes to enable faster and more efficient investment flows into the country, said Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal, adding one such meeting with stakeholders was held on Tuesday.
The Russians have termed Putin's visit to India, his first to this country since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, as 'Druzhba Dosti', which means 'friendship' in Russian and Hindi respectively.
The United States announced a 25 per cent tariff on India as the White House released an expansive list of duties that Washington, DC will impose on exports from countries around the world.
The Taliban have stopped all imports and exports with India after entering Kabul and taking over the country on Sunday. Ajay Sahai, Director General (DG) of Federation of Indian Export Organisation (FIEO) told ANI that currently, the Taliban has stopped the movement of cargo through the transit routes of Pakistan, thereby stopping imports from the country.
Renewables sector stole the show as Andhra Pradesh bagged investments to the tune of around Rs 13.25 trillion during the three-day CII Partnership Summit in Visakhapatnam. The sector accounted for the bulk of Rs 5.33 trillion out of the memorandum of understanding (MoUs) signed during the summit.
Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in New Delhi for a two-day visit focused on strengthening ties with India, including defense cooperation and trade, amidst a changing geopolitical landscape.
India's merchandise exports in April 2024 marginally rose to $34.99 billion from $34.62 billion in the year-ago month, according to government data released on Wednesday. Imports too increased to $54.09 billion from $49.06 billion in April 2023.
After remaining in the positive zone for three months, India's exports contracted 1.2 per cent to $33.98 billion in July, while the trade deficit widened to $23.5 billion.
The escalation of conflict in the West Asian region is expected to push already high logistics costs besides hurting trade in sectors such as oil, electronics and agriculture, according to exporters. They said that insurance costs for exports to the countries directly involved in the war could also go up, which will impact Indian exporters' working capital. Think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) stated that the conflict is already hurting India's trade with countries like Israel, Jordan, and Lebanon.
'Just as we cannot surrender the interests of our farmers and dairy industry, Trump is also looking for markets for the produce of the farmers in the Midwest, which are his support base.'
The Indian industry is paranoid about the USA's plan to impose reciprocal tariffs and wants early conclusion of a bilateral trade agreement, sources said on Wednesday. They said that the talks for the proposed bilateral trade agreement are going well.
India's merchandise exports in October rose by 17.25 per cent to $39.2 billion against $33.43 billion a year ago, according to government data released on Thursday. Imports increased by 3.9 per cent to $66.34 billion in October compared to $63.86 billion in the year-ago period.
India's exports dipped deeper in the negative zone.
The commerce department has reaffirmed its plans to launch the 'Trade Connect' e-platform to help exporters connect with stakeholders of international trade, as a part of the new government's 100-day action plan, a senior government official said.
India's exports increased 3.79 per cent to $26.75 billion in January, helping the trade deficit to narrow to $9.92 billion.
Despite the 6-month high, trade deficit has widened to a four-month high of $14.62 billion, as imports rose by 14.85 per cent during the month, reports Subhayan Chakraborty.
If the US' renewed closeness with Pakistan ends up strengthening Pakistan's military, it will clearly show that Washington no longer wants a strong India and could be ready to let China dominate Asia, notes Colonel Anil A Athale (retd).
'We have to be prepared for the larger disruption that is likely to take place.'
India's exports entered negative territory after a gap of about two years, declining sharply by 16.65 per cent to $29.78 billion in October, mainly due to global demand slowdown, even as trade deficit widened to $26.91 billion, according to data released by the commerce ministry on Tuesday. Key export sectors, including gems and jewellery, engineering, petroleum products, ready-made garments of all textiles, chemicals, pharma, marine products, and leather, recorded negative growth during October. Imports during the month under review rose by about 6 per cent to $56.69 billion on account of increase in the inbound shipments of crude oil and certain raw materials such as cotton, fertiliser and machinery.
As uncertainty looms large in Afghanistan, Indian pharma exporters are apprehensive to send goods to the war-torn country and the target of exporting $126 million worth of pharmaceutical goods to the Taliban-ruling nation now depends on the future outcome. Udaya Bhaskar, director general of Pharmaceuticals Export Promotion Council of India (Pharmexcil) body under the Department of Commerce on Tuesday said as the situation is grim over there and India pharma exporters have cordial relations with Afghanistan. "The projected target for 2021-22 is $126.22 million.
India's merchandise exports rose by 9.1 per cent to $38.13 billion in May even as the trade deficit widened to a seven-month high of $23.78 billion during the month, according to government data. Healthy growth in sectors, such as engineering, electronics, pharmaceuticals, textiles and plastics helped register growth in exports despite global economic uncertainties.
New Delhi, while opting not to retaliate yet to the American tariffs, has in recent weeks sought to reinforce its friendship with Moscow, and recalibrate its ties with Beijing rather than surrender to Washington's diktats.
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